About

This site is to share my work on everything outside of my primary research project on the Pritzker family (which lives exclusively on Rockwood Notes).

Here, you can expect:

• Research on present day opportunities
• Long-form business histories (think financial + narrative history of Union Pacific from 1870 to present, or the rise and fall of Sears)
• Case studies, whether my own over the past decade+ I've been investing, or others
• Lamentations: a section where I get to complain about stuff (don't worry, these will always be free)

Philosophy

My framework for allocating capital is to ask:

• How much money is there?
• When am I going to get it?
• How sure am I?

The nice thing about this framework is you can apply it to anything. Stock, bonds, crypto, real estate, horse racing, the birthday paradox at a bar.

If you can answer the three questions and buy at the appropriate odds, I consider that an investment.

The difference in how people approach markets stems mainly from how they determine how sure they are. “What’s your edge?”

I can’t figure out how to have a high degree of certainty in what any cryptocurrencies will do. But I do think I can put together a decent return profile of a portfolio of stocks.

But a trader may be able to predict the cash flows generated from trading the stock price. Hashtag Medallion fund.

I’ve played around with various trading strategies. One had a lot of success…except I couldn’t scale it past $400. So, ‘fundamentals’ for me it is.

Overall, I believe in thoughtful opinions loosely held. I try to avoid tribalism that infects so many people.

I don’t obsess over micro caps because Warren Buffett said that’s what he’d do. I don’t care if something is off-the-beaten-path. I don’t care if I’m buying and holding for 10 years or 10 minutes. I don’t care if the idea is “contrarian” or loved by everyone.

And I honestly don't care if I'm betting on the stock price or underlying business. If it seems like a good bet, I'll make it.

I just want to make money with a reasonable degree of certainty, and do what makes sense at any given moment.

Now I have a designated place to track and share that.

Membership

Most of the research I publish will be for paid members only. There are two ways to join:

• Subscribe here and get full access to all content on this site – the business histories, case studies and present-day opportunities.
• Subscribe on Rockwood Notes where you'll get full membership there plus complimentary premium access to this site.

Disclaimer

I am not a licensed financial advisor. Nothing I say or do constitutes any sort of professional investment, legal, accounting et al advice. This site is my public research journal. It's a place to share my work and improve my thinking. You should always do your own work, check your own facts, and make up your own damn mind. I am not liabile or responsible for any decisions or adverse effects you experience if you make decisions or form opinions based on what I write.