About
This site is to share my work on everything outside of my primary research project on the Pritzker family (which lives exclusively on Rockwood Notes).
Here, you can expect:
- Research on present day opportunities
- Long-form business histories (think financial + narrative history of Union Pacific from 1870 to present, or the rise and fall of Sears)
- Case studies, whether my own over the past decade+ I’ve been investing, or others
- Lamentations: a section where I complain about stuff (don’t worry, these will always be free)
Philosophy
My framework for allocating capital is to ask:
- How much money is there?
- When am I going to get it?
- How sure am I?
The nice thing about this framework is you can apply it to anything. Stock, bonds, crypto, real estate, horse racing, the birthday paradox at a bar.
If you can answer the three questions and buy at the appropriate odds, I consider that an investment.
The difference in how people approach markets stems mainly from how they determine how sure they are. “What’s your edge?”
I can’t figure out how to have a high degree of certainty in what any cryptocurrencies will do. But I do think I can put together a decent return profile of a portfolio of stocks.
A trader may be able to predict the cash flows generated from trading the stock price. Hashtag Medallion fund.
I’ve played around with various trading strategies. One had a lot of success…except I couldn’t scale it past $400. So, I tend to lean towards fundamentals.
Overall, I believe in thoughtful opinions loosely held. I try to avoid tribalism that infects so many people. There’s exceptions to every rule, and nuance to every view.
I don’t obsess over micro caps. I don’t care if something is off-the-beaten-path. I don’t care if I buy and hold for 10 years or 10 minutes. I don’t care if the idea is “contrarian” or loved by everyone.
And I don’t care if I’m betting on the stock price or underlying business. If it seems like a good bet, I’ll make it.
People tend to avoid doing what works because they have an entrenched belief for how something should work.
I just want to make money with a reasonable degree of certainty, and do what makes sense at any given moment.
Now I have a designated place to track and share that.
Disclaimer
I am not a licensed financial advisor. Nothing I say or do constitutes any sort of professional investment, legal, accounting et al advice. This site is my public research journal. It’s a place to share my work and improve my thinking. You should always do your own work, check your own facts, and make up your own damn mind. I am not liable or responsible for any decisions or adverse effects you experience if you make decisions or form opinions based on what I write.
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